Upright-Toaster
0x8e2ee41d323b4fa9ca6101d12726fc676a502ed6
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$445.42
Total PnL
$-2.1K
Realised
$-944.55
Win rate
30%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- NO
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
95 shares @ 86.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$95.00
$12.45
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?
392 shares @ 25.8¢·now 20.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$80.36
$-20.76
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?
81 shares @ 90.5¢·now 80.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$65.57
$-7.99
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?
109 shares @ 73.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$51.77
$-27.81
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?
71 shares @ 78.0¢·now 54.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$38.70
$-16.68
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?
215 shares @ 16.6¢·now 16.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$34.40
$-1.26
- NO
Abstract FDV above $1B one day after launch?
30 shares @ 83.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$26.40
$1.50
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
24 shares @ 89.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.68
$0.59
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?
58 shares @ 47.0¢·now 26.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$15.25
$-11.78
- YES
Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?
10 shares @ 55.0¢·now 71.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$7.10
$1.60
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 9, 00:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
30% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 9, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.