Dear-Component
0x8f3f179ce60d4fdb01d2af6e36f0bf88ea751120
Wallet digest
Activity score
37/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
46
Open notional
$56.44
Total PnL
$-386.16
Realised
$-94.99
Win rate
12%
34 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 46- YES
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2258 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$16.94
$1.13
- NO
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
15 shares @ 51.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$14.90
$7.17
- NO
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
4 shares @ 85.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.60
$0.51
- NO
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
3 shares @ 93.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.30
$0.20
- YES
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
553 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.77
$-2.21
- YES
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
200 shares @ 0.9¢·now 1.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.10
$0.30
- YES
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.70
$-0.30
- YES
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
200 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.70
$0.30
- YES
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.30
$-0.70
- YES
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.30
$-0.70
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 30, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 20, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
12% win rate over 34 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
34 closed markets, 12% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 11, 15:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 34 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.