Ill-Caterpillar
0x8f70a18e6766b4f832e0b9220434a5200e68a2d1
Wallet digest
Activity score
35/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-296.80
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$0.00
$-0.50
- YES
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?
33001 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-33.50
- YES
Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
4641 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-5.14
- YES
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?
1001 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
1001 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will Rosen Zhelyazkov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Delyan Peevski be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Kostadin Kostadinov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Krum Zarkov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Assen Vassilev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- SPLITWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 27?$1.00Jul 27, 10:58 UTC
- SPLITWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 26?$1.00Jul 26, 03:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 12?$1.00Jul 18, 02:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 15?$1.00Jul 18, 02:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 16?$1.00Jul 18, 02:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 14?$1.00Jul 18, 02:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 11?$1.00Jul 18, 02:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 13?$1.00Jul 18, 02:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 17?$1.00Jul 18, 02:54 UTC
- SPLITWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 20?$1.00Jul 18, 02:54 UTC
- SPLITWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 17?$1.00Jul 17, 14:06 UTC
- SPLITWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 16?$1.00Jul 16, 07:22 UTC
- SPLITWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 15?$1.00Jul 15, 13:46 UTC
- SPLITWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 14?$1.00Jul 14, 07:20 UTC
- SPLITWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 13?$1.00Jul 13, 14:53 UTC
- SPLITWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 12?$1.00Jul 12, 02:46 UTC
- SPLITWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 11?$1.00Jul 11, 03:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 10?$1.00Jul 11, 03:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 8?$1.00Jul 11, 03:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 7?$1.00Jul 11, 03:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 24, 13:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 10:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.