Insubstantial-Pitching
0x8f811e2e72261e53b18c8ed111e8964e96520caa
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$132.42
Total PnL
$-986.51
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- YES
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
533 shares @ 3.7¢·now 13.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$70.68
$50.94
- YES
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2012 shares @ 4.4¢·now 2.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$51.10
$-37.42
- NO
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?
7 shares @ 55.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$6.80
$3.06
- YES
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
314 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.04
$-2.67
- YES
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
77 shares @ 1.6¢·now 2.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.81
$0.58
- YES
Will Ghislaine Maxwell cut a deal with the Feds by August 31?
1000 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2025$0.00
$-300.00
- YES
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?
847 shares @ 44.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2025$0.00
$-379.65
- NO
Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?
672 shares @ 8.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-56.87
- YES
Will Pierre-Yves Bournazel advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?
400 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-104.00
- YES
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?
250 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-110.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 25, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 20, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.