Worldly-Radiator
0x8f8c3357de7534e8936eb99baa65407ea3fe4268
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
46
Open notional
$9.30
Total PnL
$-37.87
Realised
$8.73
Win rate
100%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 46- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?
142 shares @ 0.6¢·now 5.8¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$8.22
$7.37
- YES
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
41 shares @ 1.6¢·now 1.6¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.63
$-0.04
- YES
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
11 shares @ 9.0¢·now 3.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.42
$-0.58
- YES
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be below 1.0%?
69 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.03
$-0.97
- NO
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
264 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
GPT-5.3 released by February 21, 2026?
138 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by March 31?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform at the 2026 Grammy Awards?
91 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
33 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.02
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?$1.49Jun 30, 19:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?$14.70Jun 15, 21:10 UTC
- TRADESELLNexus FDV above $800M one day after launch?$1.00Apr 24, 15:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?$1.00Mar 13, 15:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?$1.00Mar 12, 09:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?$1.37Mar 7, 22:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 1,100 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?$5.56Mar 7, 22:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike Iraq by February 28?$1.00Feb 28, 06:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?$1.00Feb 28, 06:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill DeepSeek have the best AI model for coding on March 31?$2.00Feb 24, 03:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?$0.00Feb 22, 23:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek have the best AI model for coding on March 31?$1.00Feb 20, 23:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?$0.45Feb 20, 23:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?$1.00Feb 20, 22:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?$1.00Feb 20, 22:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 1,100 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?$2.00Feb 20, 16:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?$1.00Feb 20, 15:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek have the best AI model for coding on March 31?$1.00Feb 20, 01:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?$1.00Feb 20, 01:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?$1.30Feb 19, 23:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $1.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 5, 16:53 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 30, 19:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.