Nexus FDV above $800M one day after launch?
Probability
23¢
1h
-3.1pp
24h
+17.8pp
24h Vol
$137.99
Liquidity
$1.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
+20.3pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 18pp over 24h
Now 23¢; -3.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 14774h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 38.4¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 14773.6h
- 15:25SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 14774h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.6pp
to 22¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.4pp
to 26¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.7pp
to 26¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.2pp
to 26¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.5pp
to 24¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.1pp
to 23¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.5pp
to 22¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.7pp
to 22¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.2pp
to 28¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.3pp
to 28¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.4pp
to 28¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.4pp
to 28¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.4pp
to 28¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.8pp
to 29¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.9pp
to 31¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.6pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.1pp
to 5¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 5¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Nexus's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Nexus (https://x.com/NexusLabs) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (38.4¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).