Well-Documented-Category-Tissue
0x90323218cd86b964feb4ee2317422a2a5286b5c3
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
28
Open notional
$10.0K
Total PnL
$1.6K
Realised
$336.24
Win rate
100%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
6312 shares @ 31.4¢·now 43.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.7K
$765.09
- YES
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
2393 shares @ 98.4¢·now 99.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.4K
$27.60
- YES
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
1392 shares @ 98.8¢·now 98.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.4K
$-5.72
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
1141 shares @ 51.7¢·now 72.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$827.55
$236.99
- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$800.50
$300.50
- YES
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
1143 shares @ 30.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$543.05
$200.26
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
433 shares @ 53.7¢·now 65.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$283.48
$51.02
- YES
Will there be exactly 6 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?
630 shares @ 40.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$255.26
$3.15
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 20.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$199.50
$-300.50
- YES
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?
200 shares @ 70.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$143.00
$3.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?$77.59Jul 13, 19:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?$2.70Jul 13, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$17.40Jul 13, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$15.64Jul 13, 17:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?$267.99Jul 13, 15:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?$140.00Jul 13, 14:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?$144.00Jul 13, 14:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$0.99Jul 13, 02:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$0.99Jul 13, 02:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$0.99Jul 13, 02:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$0.99Jul 13, 02:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$0.99Jul 13, 02:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$0.99Jul 13, 02:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$0.99Jul 13, 02:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$0.99Jul 13, 02:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$0.99Jul 13, 02:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$0.99Jul 13, 02:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$101.41Jul 13, 01:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$85.67Jul 13, 01:01 UTC
- YIELD$0.14Jul 13, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $92.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 11, 22:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 19:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.