Rash-Login-Caramel
0x9047e6829b426c5b8eeda77c00ce763b6ca07663
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
78
Open notional
$1.8K
Total PnL
$-11.9K
Realised
$-3.5K
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 78- YES
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
1000 shares @ 30.0¢·now 29.8¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$298.50
$-1.50
- YES
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan?
230 shares @ 61.1¢·now 79.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$181.70
$41.20
- YES
Will Mark Brown be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?
200 shares @ 86.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$173.00
$1.00
- YES
Will Ülle Madise be the next President of Estonia?
220 shares @ 60.9¢·now 67.5¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$148.50
$14.50
- NO
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?
200 shares @ 60.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$137.00
$17.00
- YES
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
155 shares @ 54.0¢·now 82.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$127.10
$43.40
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
161 shares @ 62.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$108.87
$8.87
- YES
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
150 shares @ 66.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$93.75
$-5.25
- YES
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?
600 shares @ 17.3¢·now 14.5¢·exp Oct 29, 2026$87.00
$-17.00
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
100 shares @ 55.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$77.50
$22.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Piers Morgan attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?$20.67Aug 5, 08:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?$9.00Aug 4, 15:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan?$70.07Aug 4, 09:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?$100.00Aug 4, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?$81.29Aug 3, 23:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$18.70Aug 3, 16:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?$0.00Aug 3, 03:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYIAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?$21.00Aug 3, 01:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Todd Blanche be the next Attorney General?$6.50Aug 3, 00:27 UTC
- REWARD$16.42Aug 3, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?$47.00Aug 2, 23:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Todd Blanche be the next Attorney General?$13.00Aug 2, 23:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Todd Blanche be the next Attorney General?$13.00Aug 2, 22:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?$3.40Aug 2, 22:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ülle Madise be the next President of Estonia?$72.00Aug 2, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?$56.38Aug 2, 11:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYIAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?$50.00Aug 2, 10:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYIAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?$10.00Aug 2, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$47.85Aug 2, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$7.15Aug 2, 10:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $32.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 1, 13:31 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 5, 08:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.