Tidy-Negotiation
0x907cca2cfe1f46061ac80eaaf62cff8f838623c1
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
200
Open notional
$320.12
Total PnL
$-1.5K
Realised
$-0.66
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
200 shares @ 16.0¢·now 37.3¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$74.50
$42.50
- YES
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
200 shares @ 16.0¢·now 22.6¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$45.10
$13.10
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
48 shares @ 83.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$44.10
$4.10
- NO
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
46 shares @ 87.7¢·now 94.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$42.85
$2.85
- NO
Will Otto Lopez record a hit at the 2026 MLB All-Star Game?
60 shares @ 54.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$33.30
$0.90
- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
32 shares @ 93.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$29.84
$-0.16
- YES
Will XRP dip to $1.00 by December 31, 2026?
25 shares @ 80.0¢·now 84.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$21.00
$1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?
18 shares @ 56.0¢·now 53.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$9.55
$-0.45
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?
33 shares @ 30.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$8.50
$-1.50
- YES
Will Clavicular visit the Philippines in 2026?
20 shares @ 46.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.81
$-4.22
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Otto Lopez record a hit at the 2026 MLB All-Star Game?$32.40Jul 14, 17:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Clavicular visit the Philippines in 2026?$9.03Jul 14, 17:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Clavicular visit Thailand in 2026?$9.20Jul 14, 17:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$8.44Jul 14, 16:58 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- REWARD$5.03Jul 14, 00:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
- REWARD$5.08Jul 13, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?$33.60Jul 12, 20:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?$34.00Jul 12, 20:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 30, 2026?$12.86Jul 12, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 30, 2026?$13.09Jul 12, 19:10 UTC
- REDEEMNorway vs. England: Will the Match Go to Extra Time? AND Will Norway vs. England end in a draw? AND Norway to score first vs. England?$70.92Jul 12, 00:38 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
- REWARD$1.29Jul 12, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$10.31Jul 11, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYNorway vs. England: Will the Match Go to Extra Time? AND Will Norway vs. England end in a draw? AND Norway to score first vs. England?$9.99Jul 11, 20:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the announcers say "Possession" or "On the Ball" 10+ times during the Argentina vs Switzerland FIFA World Cup Match?$10.80Jul 11, 20:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the announcers say "Possession" or "On the Ball" 10+ times during the Argentina vs Switzerland FIFA World Cup Match?$10.80Jul 11, 20:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?$96.70Jul 11, 19:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $20.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 00:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 17:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.