Weary-Fencing
0x90a9f2224d96655acd96e6b726ed8a7d0dfc1bf1
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$186.56
Total PnL
$-874.38
Realised
$-13.88
Win rate
2%
94 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
26 shares @ 77.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$19.87
$-0.13
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
22 shares @ 92.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$19.45
$-0.54
- NO
Will Renan Santos qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
20 shares @ 93.4¢·now 94.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$19.27
$0.23
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?
20 shares @ 92.3¢·now 93.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$18.45
$0.24
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August?
18 shares @ 95.3¢·now 97.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$17.37
$0.30
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?
20 shares @ 90.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$17.29
$-0.91
- NO
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
18 shares @ 89.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.55
$-0.27
- NO
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?
13 shares @ 89.2¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$11.95
$0.55
- NO
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
12 shares @ 88.2¢·now 89.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$10.94
$0.16
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
11 shares @ 91.9¢·now 96.1¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$10.33
$0.45
Recent activity
- REDEEMSpread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5)$5.00Aug 19, 21:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Sabah FK win on 2026-08-19?$30.76Aug 19, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-08-19?$16.09Aug 19, 18:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ŠK Slovan Bratislava win on 2026-08-19?$2.71Aug 19, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Celtic FC win on 2026-08-19?$2.41Aug 19, 18:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sabah FK win on 2026-08-19?$19.99Aug 19, 18:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5)$2.26Aug 19, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?$4.42Aug 19, 16:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$19.85Aug 19, 03:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?$19.81Aug 19, 03:34 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?$21.36Aug 19, 03:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$19.57Aug 19, 03:34 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?$20.25Aug 19, 03:33 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$21.60Aug 19, 03:33 UTC
- TRADESELLGianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?$20.25Aug 19, 03:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Scott Singer be the FL-25 Republican nominee?$5.00Aug 19, 03:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Chuck Gray be the WY-AL Republican nominee?$2.00Aug 19, 02:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$10.68Aug 19, 00:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?$10.11Aug 19, 00:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?$10.10Aug 19, 00:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
2% win rate over 94 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
94 closed markets, 2% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $10.42
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 16, 15:28 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 21:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 94 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.