0x91a8e83628d4190854558affa9c9df99a8b4929c
0x91a8e83628d4190854558affa9c9df99a8b4929c
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
20
Open notional
$34.71
Total PnL
$-0.61
Realised
$0.11
Win rate
17%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- NO
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?
5 shares @ 81.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$5.00
$0.95
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 February 23-March 1?
5 shares @ 69.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$5.00
$1.55
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?
3 shares @ 46.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$2.95
$1.59
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?
3 shares @ 67.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.65
$0.87
- YES
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 75.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$2.48
$0.62
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
2 shares @ 78.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$2.19
$0.47
- NO
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?
2 shares @ 70.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$2.14
$0.64
- NO
Major CEX insolvent in 2026?
2 shares @ 89.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.91
$0.11
- NO
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
3 shares @ 57.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.81
$0.10
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
2 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.72
$0.38
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?$3.25Mar 28, 03:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?$1.65Mar 18, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$1.34Mar 11, 13:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?$3.28Mar 11, 01:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYChristine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?$1.05Mar 9, 10:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYHouthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?$1.24Mar 9, 07:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?$1.36Mar 8, 19:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?$1.72Mar 8, 16:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,200 in March?$1.12Mar 8, 10:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?$1.78Mar 7, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?$2.32Mar 7, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYMajor CEX insolvent in 2026?$1.80Mar 7, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?$1.50Mar 7, 14:10 UTC
- TRADESELLNothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy$1.22Mar 7, 11:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$0.56Mar 7, 11:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament?$3.85Mar 7, 11:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June?$4.53Mar 7, 05:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy$1.70Mar 4, 03:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $80 on March 3?$2.25Feb 28, 17:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?$1.55Feb 28, 02:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
17% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.20
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 12, 02:44 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 28, 03:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.