Stale-Viability
0x9208b06c0368b3e2122f183f316e9d3fba2cd345
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
63
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.0K
Realised
$-818.59
Win rate
3%
31 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 63- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
1034 shares @ 27.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-286.08
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET
1020 shares @ 26.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-270.52
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET
998 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE?
748 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?
621 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 12-18?
500 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 12-18?
375 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET$1.07Jul 3, 15:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET$1.07Jul 3, 15:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET$2.13Jul 3, 15:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET$5.23Jul 3, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$5.33Jul 3, 15:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$1.06Jul 2, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$5.30Jul 2, 19:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$10.60Jul 2, 19:55 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$42.25Jul 2, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$10.56Jul 2, 19:54 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$61.78Jul 2, 19:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$10.53Jul 2, 19:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$20.85Jul 2, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET$1.07Jun 16, 07:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET$5.35Jun 16, 07:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?$2.13Jun 16, 07:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?$2.13Jun 16, 07:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?$28.78Jun 16, 07:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?$35.63Jun 16, 07:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?$1.00May 18, 18:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
3% win rate over 31 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
31 closed markets, 3% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $6.29
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 27, 15:36 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 15:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 31 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.