Subtle-Farming-Consulting
0x9276d9f0044737c987f166c5dcb2d3f615dc37a3
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
20
Open notional
$1.2K
Total PnL
$-449.08
Realised
$2.35
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- YES
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
218 shares @ 91.8¢·now 97.5¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$212.60
$12.60
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
431 shares @ 23.2¢·now 28.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$120.89
$20.89
- NO
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
140 shares @ 71.2¢·now 77.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$108.14
$8.14
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
233 shares @ 43.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$101.16
$1.16
- NO
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
110 shares @ 82.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$93.84
$3.84
- NO
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
110 shares @ 91.2¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$93.80
$-6.20
- YES
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?
541 shares @ 17.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$89.30
$-2.71
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
429 shares @ 23.3¢·now 19.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$84.76
$-15.24
- YES
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
157 shares @ 63.7¢·now 54.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$84.74
$-15.26
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?
849 shares @ 23.5¢·now 7.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$66.66
$-133.34
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.04Jul 24, 00:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?$70.07Jul 23, 16:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal?$0.06Jul 23, 13:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?$0.04Jul 23, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?$70.00Jul 23, 13:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?$0.66Jul 23, 13:32 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 21, 20:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?$51.30Jul 20, 11:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?$1.33Jul 20, 11:02 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 19, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal?$1.05Jul 15, 01:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?$1.05Jul 15, 01:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?$1.05Jul 15, 01:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?$1.05Jul 15, 01:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
19 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 19
- Avg trade size
- $33.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 25, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 00:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.