Primary-Reciprocity-Ethernet
0x9295e6ca73ba35df8fbc419233cb3030c974b91c
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$14.88
Total PnL
$-10.52
Realised
$-7.34
Win rate
0%
5 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Chuck Gray be the WY-AL Republican nominee?
13 shares @ 46.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$5.44
$-0.45
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1T by August 31?
20 shares @ 11.0¢·now 11.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$2.20
$0.00
- YES
Will Dricus Du Plessis fight Sean Strickland next?
8 shares @ 18.4¢·now 19.5¢·exp Jul 18, 2027$1.63
$0.09
- YES
Will Project Hail Mary be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?
20 shares @ 9.0¢·now 7.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.40
$-0.40
- YES
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
18 shares @ 13.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.37
$-1.01
- NO
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 91 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
1 shares @ 29.0¢·now 95.8¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$0.96
$0.67
- YES
Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?
4 shares @ 20.0¢·now 20.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$0.82
$0.02
- YES
Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?
4 shares @ 17.0¢·now 16.6¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.68
$-0.02
- YES
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?
4 shares @ 15.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$0.38
$-0.22
- YES
Will "Stock Market" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
4 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.86
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Iran target a Arab country on August 4, 2026?$9.00Aug 2, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target a Arab country on August 4, 2026?$8.80Aug 2, 00:01 UTC
- REWARD$23.09Aug 2, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.3%?$1.23Aug 1, 23:48 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by August 15?$6.40Aug 1, 22:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 15?$6.60Aug 1, 22:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump speak to Xi Jinping in August?$5.98Aug 1, 21:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.3%?$1.23Aug 1, 21:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Xi Jinping in August?$5.79Aug 1, 21:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Chuck Gray be the WY-AL Republican nominee?$5.89Aug 1, 21:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dricus Du Plessis fight Sean Strickland next?$1.00Aug 1, 19:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran target a Arab country on August 4, 2026?$2.64Aug 1, 19:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target a Arab country on August 4, 2026?$2.58Aug 1, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1T by August 31?$2.20Aug 1, 16:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?$0.14Aug 1, 16:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill George Moraitis be the FL-25 Republican nominee?$4.46Aug 1, 16:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?$3.00Aug 1, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?$5.00Aug 1, 15:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Super Typhoon Dolphin make landfall at Category 4 strength or higher?$4.33Aug 1, 14:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Core PCE YoY be 3.5% in July?$1.53Aug 1, 14:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $3.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 20:13 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 2, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.