Zany-Macro
0x929d1f8d645cc5073991c02db595411926fb26f5
Wallet digest
Activity score
39/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
53
Open notional
$7.11
Total PnL
$-352.12
Realised
$-77.18
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 53- YES
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
233 shares @ 12.9¢·now 3.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.11
$-22.89
- NO
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?
1333 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 15, 2025$0.00
$-8.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET
1136 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Grokipedia released by October 31?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?
708 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$0.00
$-20.34
- YES
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 10?
454 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
300 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Maduro in U.S. custody by December 31?
292 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-6.91
- YES
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31?
203 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$22.83Apr 14, 05:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?$8.15Apr 14, 05:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jon Stewart announce a Presidential run before 2027?$3.89Apr 14, 05:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?$2.78Apr 14, 05:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill US withdraw from NATO by April 30?$6.88Apr 14, 05:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET$2.00Apr 14, 05:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET$5.00Apr 14, 05:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET$8.91Apr 14, 05:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET$20.00Apr 14, 05:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US withdraw from NATO by April 30?$10.00Apr 10, 12:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US withdraw from NATO before 2027?$30.00Apr 10, 12:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?$5.00Apr 2, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China blockade Taiwan by June 30?$5.00Apr 2, 09:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China blockade Taiwan by June 30?$5.00Apr 2, 08:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$2.55Apr 2, 08:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tulsi Gabbard announce a presidential run before 2027?$3.51Apr 2, 08:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tim Walz announce a Presidential run before 2027?$7.00Apr 2, 08:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Erika Kirk announce a presidential run before 2027?$6.14Apr 2, 08:56 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$0.00Feb 17, 14:45 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$4.02Feb 17, 14:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 71/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $5.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 17, 14:01 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 14, 05:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.