Bad-Dolor
0x9381eeb126e32cbacc011ba99a97da1bc6bc8059
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
138
Open notional
$52.70
Total PnL
$-676.33
Realised
$-108.40
Win rate
21%
43 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 138- YES
3Jane FDV above $200M one day after launch?
20 shares @ 19.0¢·now 38.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$7.60
$3.80
- YES
Will Michael Echols be the Republican nominee for LA-05?
132 shares @ 15.2¢·now 5.3¢·exp May 16, 2026$7.00
$-13.06
- YES
Will Aileen Cannon be the next Supreme Court nominee?
24 shares @ 25.1¢·now 17.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2029$4.11
$-1.96
- NO
Amazon 2026 capex above $200B?
33 shares @ 23.0¢·now 11.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$3.63
$-3.96
- YES
Will Mike Immler win the 2026 Dallas County Judge election?
70 shares @ 12.8¢·now 5.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$3.46
$-5.53
- YES
Hotstuff FDV above $500M one day after launch?
29 shares @ 11.5¢·now 10.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$3.02
$-0.29
- YES
Will Misti Cordell be the Republican nominee for LA-05?
120 shares @ 19.0¢·now 2.1¢·exp May 16, 2026$2.57
$-20.28
- YES
Will Mike Lee be the next Supreme Court nominee?
24 shares @ 20.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jan 19, 2029$2.28
$-2.53
- YES
Will Austin Magee be the Republican nominee for LA-05?
140 shares @ 20.0¢·now 1.5¢·exp May 16, 2026$2.10
$-25.84
- YES
Will Brayden Burries win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?
37 shares @ 26.8¢·now 4.3¢·exp May 31, 2027$1.60
$-8.28
Recent activity
- TRADESELLEthereal FDV above $500M one day after launch?$0.81Jul 20, 09:12 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereal FDV above $500M one day after launch?$0.99Jul 20, 09:11 UTC
- TRADESELLHurupay FDV above $40M one day after launch?$1.06Jul 20, 08:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Congress override any veto in 2026?$0.74Jul 15, 19:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Prime Intellect launch a token by December 31, 2026?$1.80Jul 12, 17:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill another result occur for the next governing coalition of Romania?$5.00Jul 12, 02:19 UTC
- REWARD$2.58Jul 12, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Reece James score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.45Jul 11, 22:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Leavitt say "Xi" or "Jinping" during the next White House Press Briefing?$2.40Jul 11, 19:38 UTC
- REWARD$3.05Jul 11, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLAmazon 2026 capex above $190B?$0.76Jul 10, 10:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Dreamcash launch a token by September 30, 2026?$0.55Jul 10, 10:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Misti Cordell be the Republican nominee for LA-05?$2.42Jul 10, 05:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Everton Blair win the 2026 GA-13 special election?$0.02Jul 10, 00:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Everton Blair win the 2026 GA-13 special election?$1.54Jul 10, 00:19 UTC
- REWARD$6.37Jul 10, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLNoble FDV above $300M one day after launch?$2.80Jul 9, 20:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 revenue (USD) be above $43B?$3.51Jul 9, 15:57 UTC
- TRADESELLAmazon 2026 capex above $190B?$0.47Jul 9, 12:13 UTC
- TRADESELLAmazon 2026 capex above $190B?$1.36Jul 9, 10:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
21% win rate over 43 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
43 closed markets, 21% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $1.54
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 2, 23:53 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 09:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 43 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.