Will Michael Echols be the Republican nominee for LA-05?
Probability
19¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
-0.3pp
24h Vol
$5.05
Liquidity
$13.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.3pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Thin liquidity
Only $13.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 447.0h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 19¢.
Biggest hourly move: -4.1pp at 3d ago (to 20¢).
Show 2 hourly moves
- 17:00 · -3.3pp → 20¢
- 3d ago · -4.1pp → 20¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in thLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.