Next-Downturn
0x93a71bfde8514ebfeceb6ad33da1b84d547eb7c6
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
57
Open notional
$40.52
Total PnL
$-586.98
Realised
$-324.41
Win rate
11%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 57- NO
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?
40 shares @ 50.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$36.60
$16.60
- YES
Will Russia capture Toretske by July 31, 2026?
40 shares @ 50.0¢·now 3.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.36
$-18.64
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
40 shares @ 50.0¢·now 2.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.14
$-18.86
- YES
Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by July 31?
40 shares @ 50.0¢·now 2.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.90
$-19.10
- YES
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 24, 2026?
40 shares @ 50.0¢·now 1.3¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.52
$-19.48
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?
40 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 20, 2026?
40 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?
40 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026?
20 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?
20 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$38.64Jul 24, 00:35 UTC
- SPLITBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$40.00Jul 24, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$38.20Jul 24, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$2.20Jul 23, 23:19 UTC
- SPLITBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$40.00Jul 23, 22:39 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$2.80Jul 23, 19:38 UTC
- SPLITIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$40.00Jul 23, 19:36 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$37.60Jul 23, 19:36 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$2.80Jul 23, 18:48 UTC
- SPLITIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$40.00Jul 23, 18:39 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$32.91Jul 23, 18:39 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$2.80Jul 23, 18:38 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$4.69Jul 23, 18:38 UTC
- SPLITIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$40.00Jul 23, 18:29 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$37.60Jul 23, 18:28 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$2.80Jul 23, 18:15 UTC
- SPLITIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$40.00Jul 23, 17:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31?$26.00Jul 23, 17:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31?$1.10Jul 23, 17:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31?$10.05Jul 23, 17:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
11% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $17.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 00:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 00:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.