UnclassifiedExpires Jul 24, 2026
Creator

Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 24, 2026?

Probability

2¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-1.5pp

24h Vol

$6.8K

Liquidity

$6.0K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED NO

Reason

YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Methodology explanation

Review-only opportunity

No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.

read_only_explanationpaper-onlysend false

Why this market is in review

signal

Resolution-source risk

40% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Paper-only action

paper-only

Review-only opportunity

read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.

Risk / veto readback

review

Resolution review required

The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.

Source evidence

source

4 mapped surfaces

283/283 sources runtime-backed; all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false.

Signals

  • Resolution-source riskwatch

    40% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Veto / blockers

  • Resolution review requiredwatch

    The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.

  • Confidence below paper gatewatch

    Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.

Costs / sizing

Research score
Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
25
Capacity
Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
$500
Liquidity
Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
$6k
Explanation packet2026-06-16.1
DecisionSignalsVetoes and capsCostsDriftShadow policyLearning statusAuthority
What can be learned
Source-to-runtime coverage283/283 runtime-backed0 unmapped

all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false; this card cites mapped surfaces only.

P32-Source-to-Runtime-Coverage-Matrix-v1semantic_risk_kernelmethodology_runtime_boundarypromotion_gate+3
live falsesecrets falsetraining falsenot advice

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Jul 24, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires Jul 24, 2026 — dispute window active.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-3.4pp 7d
1007550250
2¢
Jul 16, 2026, 23:00 UTCJul 23, 2026, 22:14 UTC
updated 22:15:16 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-07-23T22-15Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 2pp over 24h

    Now 2¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 26h.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $6.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 26 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

price pinned not settled
Trust transition

The price is pinned near a rail, but price is not settlement. Verify the official status before treating it as final.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Price is not settlement

required

Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢.

Current evidence: 2¢ current price

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 24, 2026? State: Pinned near NO — price pinned not settled Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Price is not settlement: Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 24, 2026? State: price pinned not settled Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jul 24, 23:59 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 25.7h

    HIGH
  • 22:15Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 26h.

    LOW

Price movement

-1.5pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.

Biggest hourly move: +13.9pp at Jul 20, 14:00 UTC (to 17¢).

Show top 8 of 29 hourly moves
  • 06:00 · -4.4pp → 3¢
  • 05:00 · -4.5pp → 3¢
  • 01:00 · -13.0pp → 3¢
  • 00:00 · -7.1pp → 3¢
  • Jul 22, 17:00 UTC · -5.1pp → 3¢
  • Jul 20, 15:00 UTC · +4.5pp → 7¢
  • Jul 20, 14:00 UTC · +13.9pp → 17¢
  • Jul 20, 12:00 UTC · +7.5pp → 10¢
updated 22:15:16 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 22:15:16 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

2
Same eventMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by...?

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mykhailo Fedorov is reinstated as Ukraine’s Minister of Defense by the listed date at 11:59 PM Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Fedorov will be considered reinstated if he is either i) officially assigned to temporarily perform the minister’s duties or ii) formally nominated for appointment by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the Verkhovna Rada. A temporary reinstatement will be considered to have occurred when the President of Ukraine or the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine officially and definitively announces that Mykhailo Fedorov has been assigned to temporarily perform the duties of the Minister of Defense. A formal nomination will be considered to have occurred upon the submission of Mykhailo Fedorov’s nomination to the Verkhovna Rada. A public statement, media report, expression of intent, or informal announcement will not qualify, unless it constitutes an official and definitive announcement by the President of Ukraine or the Cabinet of Ministers assigning Fedorov to perform the minister’s duties. Fedorov does not need to be approved by the Verkhovna Rada, take the oath of office, or assume the position on a permanent basis to qualify. Whether any individual other than Mykhailo Fedorov is nominated, temporarily assigned, or appointed Minister of Defense, within the market timeframe, will not be considered. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information and records from the President of Ukraine, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, and the Verkhovna Rada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: low

Category

Other

Source

Default fallback

Reason

No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 24, 2026?"?

As of Thu, 23 Jul 2026 22:15:16 GMT, YES is priced at 2% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -1.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -3.4pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jul 24, 2026 (2026-07-24T23:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$6.8K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $65.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $6.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.2¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket