Blue-Bend
0x9495d622ab74a601ad1668d3dd4f7a2e68c3468f
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.0K
Total PnL
$3.5K
Realised
$10.8K
Win rate
43%
94 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $75B by December 31?
126 shares @ 84.0¢·now 83.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$104.58
$-1.26
- NO
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027?
1398 shares @ 8.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$76.89
$-34.95
- NO
Will AfD win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
80 shares @ 90.6¢·now 87.8¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$70.24
$-2.22
- YES
Will Gavin McKenna win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?
198 shares @ 28.0¢·now 27.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$54.45
$-0.99
- YES
Will Arch Network launch a token by December 31, 2026?
178 shares @ 39.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$54.34
$-15.14
- NO
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?
50 shares @ 81.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$41.75
$1.25
- NO
Will Thorsten Kornblum win the next Braunschweig mayoral election?
291 shares @ 21.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$36.43
$-24.77
- NO
Will South African inflation be between 4.4% and 4.7% in 2026?
41 shares @ 88.9¢·now 78.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2027$31.83
$-4.47
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the OH-13 House seat?
399 shares @ 10.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Nov 4, 2026$29.95
$-9.98
- NO
Will UPND win the most seats in the 2026 Zambia National Assembly Election?
433 shares @ 3.9¢·now 5.9¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$25.76
$8.88
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Esteban "Steve" Guerra win the 2026 Cameron County Judge election?$1.17Aug 11, 16:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Esteban "Steve" Guerra win the 2026 Cameron County Judge election?$0.63Aug 11, 16:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill José Maria Neves win the Cape Verde presidential election?$12.25Aug 11, 16:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYVariational FDV above $500M one day after launch?$19.84Aug 11, 16:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alabama have more than 6.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?$19.36Aug 11, 16:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill JavierLoL Win the 2026 Soloq Challenge (High Elo)$2.00Aug 11, 16:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 900m by August 31?$3.08Aug 11, 16:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$5.02Aug 11, 15:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$14.76Aug 11, 15:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jakub Mensik Win ATP Montreal$0.92Aug 11, 15:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jakub Mensik Win ATP Montreal$0.92Aug 11, 15:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 900m by August 31?$3.97Aug 11, 15:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$19.95Aug 11, 15:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill monthly inflation stay flat (0.0%) in July?$19.68Aug 11, 15:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?$2.12Aug 11, 15:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?$17.37Aug 11, 15:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYCS2 EWC 2026: Will an Open Qualifier Team Finish Top 8 at EWC?$16.20Aug 11, 15:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?$4.24Aug 11, 15:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?$10.57Aug 11, 15:22 UTC
- MERGEWill Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?$1.00Aug 11, 15:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
43% win rate over 94 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
94 closed markets, 43% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $9.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 11, 13:24 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 16:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 94 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.