0x94bba9607fc268480edeb58c3c876b138e862e04
0x94bba9607fc268480edeb58c3c876b138e862e04
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$52.65
Total PnL
$-123.30
Realised
$-1.35
Win rate
56%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
50 shares @ 61.6¢·now 66.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$33.25
$2.45
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
20 shares @ 60.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$11.10
$-0.90
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
5 shares @ 82.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.83
$-0.27
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET
2 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$2.00
$1.00
- YES
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
30 shares @ 6.7¢·now 4.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$1.20
$-0.81
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
84 shares @ 1.2¢·now 1.3¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$1.05
$0.04
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
5 shares @ 4.4¢·now 3.3¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$0.16
$-0.06
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
33 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.05
$-1.17
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
5 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.01
$-0.18
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
474 shares @ 24.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.00
$-117.92
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?$1.06Jul 30, 04:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$4.10Jul 30, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET$1.03Jul 30, 02:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$9.14Jul 30, 02:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$1.08Jul 29, 22:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$5.42Jul 29, 22:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?$2.81Jul 29, 21:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$3.25Jul 29, 21:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?$7.60Jul 29, 19:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?$5.04Jul 27, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.46Jul 27, 01:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$1.60Jul 27, 01:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?$0.08Jul 26, 13:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$4.53Jul 25, 20:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?$4.22Jul 25, 20:44 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$0.35Jul 25, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?$2.31Jul 25, 08:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.66Jul 25, 07:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?$1.05Jul 25, 04:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?$0.34Jul 25, 04:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
56% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $5.18
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 19:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 04:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.