Wordy-Temptress
0x94d6f6119c9d2897719e59e4ced31a212e749ab8
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
53
Open notional
$104.7K
Total PnL
$9.7K
Realised
$1.9K
Win rate
88%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 53- NO
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
70673 shares @ 81.2¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$64.0K
$6.6K
- NO
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
8727 shares @ 93.0¢·now 91.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$8.0K
$-144.81
- NO
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?
8362 shares @ 88.9¢·now 86.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.2K
$-243.83
- NO
Will Allegiant announce bankruptcy by December 31?
5598 shares @ 92.6¢·now 96.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.4K
$227.67
- NO
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027?
5083 shares @ 89.2¢·now 97.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.9K
$393.54
- NO
Will Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?
4285 shares @ 90.8¢·now 97.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.2K
$292.03
- NO
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
2995 shares @ 88.5¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.8K
$147.98
- YES
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
26233 shares @ 4.3¢·now 5.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.5K
$364.37
- NO
Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?
1000 shares @ 89.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$954.99
$65.00
- YES
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
45900 shares @ 1.3¢·now 1.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$711.45
$104.74
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.91Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.90Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.90Jul 27, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?$10.46Jul 26, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?$91.11Jul 26, 19:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?$45.56Jul 26, 19:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?$22.78Jul 26, 19:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?$45.56Jul 26, 19:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?$91.11Jul 26, 19:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?$12.29Jul 26, 19:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?$91.11Jul 26, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?$249.00Jul 26, 19:03 UTC
- YIELD$0.90Jul 26, 00:14 UTC
- REWARD$1.30Jul 26, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$194.67Jul 25, 11:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$116.04Jul 25, 03:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?$121.40Jul 25, 02:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?$4.52Jul 25, 01:43 UTC
- YIELD$0.90Jul 25, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$4.57Jul 25, 00:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
88% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $114.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 18:53 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.