Naughty-Middle
0x94f498b717b8041c59579a99c73af3250fe4ea54
Wallet digest
Activity score
88/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$7.3K
Total PnL
$-14.6K
Realised
$4.0K
Win rate
92%
61 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
7000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 80.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$5.6K
$2.1K
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
7000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 19.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.4K
$-2.1K
- NO
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
1575 shares @ 75.0¢·now 18.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$283.50
$-897.75
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in March 2026?
4615 shares @ 7.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-336.35
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in March 2026?
3812 shares @ 6.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-232.91
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026?
3785 shares @ 5.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-219.26
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in March 2026?
3317 shares @ 13.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-437.08
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in March 2026?
3268 shares @ 7.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-255.48
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in May 2026?
3129 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-87.22
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in May 2026?
2790 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-49.39
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.62Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.62Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.62Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.62Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.62Jul 25, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.62Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.62Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.62Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.62Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.62Jul 20, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.62Jul 19, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.62Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.62Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.62Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.62Jul 15, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.62Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.62Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.62Jul 12, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.62Jul 11, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.62Jul 10, 00:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
68/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
92% win rate over 61 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
13 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
61 closed markets, 92% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 13
- Avg trade size
- $23.96
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 9, 04:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 61 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.