Natural-Serum
0x95172e263f7d5761099126e33ce08f41038ef0b3
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
38
Open notional
$4.2K
Total PnL
$-1.7K
Realised
$-1.17
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?
370 shares @ 81.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$357.22
$57.22
- NO
Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
282 shares @ 96.0¢·now 96.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$271.00
$0.00
- NO
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
255 shares @ 98.2¢·now 99.3¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$252.67
$2.67
- NO
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06?
253 shares @ 98.7¢·now 99.2¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$251.21
$1.21
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
205 shares @ 95.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Sep 15, 2026$198.18
$3.18
- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
238 shares @ 75.7¢·now 75.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$179.60
$-0.40
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
174 shares @ 86.0¢·now 98.8¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$172.24
$22.24
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?
174 shares @ 86.0¢·now 98.4¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$171.54
$21.54
- YES
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?
170 shares @ 88.0¢·now 95.6¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$162.95
$12.95
- YES
Will "My Life With the Walter Boys: Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?
164 shares @ 91.2¢·now 96.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$158.67
$8.67
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill India win?$100.50Aug 17, 06:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ryan Elijah be the FL-07 Republican nominee?$25.15Aug 17, 05:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amanda Green be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?$7.79Aug 17, 04:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06?$250.13Aug 17, 03:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Eric Barlow win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?$25.19Aug 17, 02:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?$271.43Aug 16, 16:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the match end in a draw?$54.53Aug 16, 07:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amanda Green be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?$25.72Aug 16, 06:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?$12.65Aug 16, 02:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?$107.02Aug 16, 00:38 UTC
- TRADESELLIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?$23.61Aug 15, 22:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?$26.00Aug 15, 20:57 UTC
- TRADESELLIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?$165.47Aug 15, 19:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rodri join Barcelona?$122.82Aug 15, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?$53.00Aug 15, 14:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?$59.00Aug 15, 14:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?$52.00Aug 15, 14:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?$65.00Aug 15, 13:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?$65.00Aug 15, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August 2026?$28.00Aug 15, 11:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $88.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 12, 10:52 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 06:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.