Chief-Caution
0x95263bba16035af872bde3f15015556f1c396636
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
22
Open notional
$2.62
Total PnL
$-239.26
Realised
$20.87
Win rate
80%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- NO
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
24 shares @ 42.0¢·now 11.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.62
$-7.38
- YES
Will Trump visit China by April 30?
5204 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-98.91
- NO
GPT-5.3 released by March 31, 2026?
2085 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-20.82
- NO
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 1?
411 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will Trump visit China by June 30?
136 shares @ 20.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-28.18
- NO
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 31?
126 shares @ 15.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?
100 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?
100 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-2.30
- YES
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?
100 shares @ 5.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$0.00
$-5.40
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by April 30?$25.92Apr 4, 16:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump visit China by June 30?$12.64Apr 4, 09:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump visit China by June 30?$1.20Apr 4, 09:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump visit China by June 30?$12.21Apr 4, 09:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by April 30?$36.53Apr 2, 19:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump visit China by June 30?$30.13Apr 2, 10:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump visit China by June 30?$6.40Apr 2, 10:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by April 30?$24.50Mar 31, 22:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump visit China by June 30?$24.50Mar 31, 22:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by April 30?$11.97Mar 31, 07:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$3.30Mar 31, 07:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?$8.67Mar 31, 07:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by June 30?$10.00Mar 25, 23:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?$10.00Mar 25, 18:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by June 30?$11.54Mar 21, 09:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by June 30?$80.00Mar 18, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?$0.56Mar 17, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?$0.44Mar 17, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by June 30?$25.00Mar 17, 16:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?$1.20Mar 17, 11:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $11.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 3, 16:10 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 4, 16:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.