Anguished-Estuary
0x953fe358b0c25d579448a0abc45e7bbda0d60ac6
Wallet digest
Activity score
29/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
11
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-55.23
Realised
$-4.79
Win rate
0%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?
23000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-23.00
- NO
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?
11000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- NO
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?
2100 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.10
- NO
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $41.5B by June 30?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?
805 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.61
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 17?
359 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?
25 shares @ 11.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- B8
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B
14 shares @ 33.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$0.00
$-4.74
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?$1.66May 30, 18:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$0.00May 23, 01:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$1.04May 23, 00:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $41.5B by June 30?$1.04May 21, 18:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?$1.05May 18, 05:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$1.04May 18, 05:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 17?$1.05May 17, 19:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?$1.04May 17, 19:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C or higher on May 15?$0.00May 17, 18:50 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs$4.00May 17, 18:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs$1.02May 15, 14:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C or higher on May 15?$1.05May 15, 06:21 UTC
- TRADESELLUFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)$5.24May 10, 04:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)$1.02May 9, 06:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?$1.02May 6, 18:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?$1.03May 5, 19:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?$2.05May 5, 02:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?$1.14May 4, 05:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?$1.04May 4, 02:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?$4.00Apr 20, 23:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $2.44
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 13, 20:16 UTC
- Last active
- May 30, 18:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.