Dim-Pillbox-Tolerance
0x9614b59508b11504bda8ac4fdfbefc2f92d8d217
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
82
Open notional
$534.03
Total PnL
$-83.00
Realised
$-4.75
Win rate
42%
33 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 82- NO
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?
93 shares @ 92.2¢·now 92.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$85.54
$-0.23
- NO
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
184 shares @ 34.3¢·now 31.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$57.83
$-5.23
- NO
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026?
46 shares @ 99.0¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$45.02
$-0.05
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
45 shares @ 94.5¢·now 79.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$35.83
$-7.04
- YES
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
20 shares @ 98.9¢·now 98.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$19.99
$-0.04
- NO
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
21 shares @ 93.8¢·now 91.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.95
$-0.39
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
27 shares @ 58.6¢·now 55.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.94
$-0.85
- NO
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
14 shares @ 97.2¢·now 96.0¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$13.83
$-0.17
- NO
Iran leadership change by July 31?
12 shares @ 96.8¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$12.20
$0.32
- NO
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
13 shares @ 89.7¢·now 91.3¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$11.60
$0.20
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026?$4.95Jul 29, 02:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYHamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?$6.86Jul 29, 02:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?$3.93Jul 29, 02:31 UTC
- TRADESELLTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?$54.40Jul 29, 02:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026?$4.95Jul 29, 00:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?$5.84Jul 29, 00:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYHamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?$6.79Jul 29, 00:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?$3.93Jul 29, 00:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026?$4.95Jul 28, 22:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?$5.96Jul 28, 22:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYHamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?$6.93Jul 28, 22:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?$10.23Jul 28, 22:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026?$4.95Jul 28, 21:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?$5.96Jul 28, 21:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYHamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?$6.93Jul 28, 21:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?$10.23Jul 28, 21:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026?$4.95Jul 28, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?$5.96Jul 28, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYHamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?$6.93Jul 28, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?$10.23Jul 28, 20:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
42% win rate over 33 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
33 closed markets, 42% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $6.81
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 06:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 02:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 33 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.