0x96828184d6f932d5e77faad2c4c13ad6675fbab7
0x96828184d6f932d5e77faad2c4c13ad6675fbab7
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
49
Open notional
$16.34
Total PnL
$-211.76
Realised
$-72.81
Win rate
17%
48 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 49- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET
10 shares @ 69.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$9.52
$2.88
- NO
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
15 shares @ 39.0¢·now 45.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$6.72
$0.96
- YES
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?
5 shares @ 28.0¢·now 2.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.10
$-1.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on January 25?
2933 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.93
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 36-37°F on January 24?
1887 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-4.73
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 34-35°F on January 24?
1558 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-3.49
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on January 23?
1400 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on January 23?
1400 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on January 24?
754 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-8.64
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on January 25?
733 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-0.73
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Mar 18, 00:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?$2.53Mar 18, 00:45 UTC
- TRADESELL2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$11.27Mar 18, 00:45 UTC
- MERGEWill US crude oil reserves fall to 200M by May 1?$20.00Mar 18, 00:45 UTC
- MERGEWill Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?$18.00Mar 18, 00:45 UTC
- MERGE2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$39.00Mar 18, 00:44 UTC
- REWARD$1.81Mar 18, 00:02 UTC
- TRADEBUY2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$7.00Mar 17, 13:22 UTC
- TRADEBUY2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$7.00Mar 17, 13:21 UTC
- TRADEBUY2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$7.00Mar 17, 13:21 UTC
- TRADEBUY2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$7.00Mar 17, 13:20 UTC
- TRADESELL2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$9.80Mar 17, 13:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?$0.22Mar 17, 09:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?$0.68Mar 17, 09:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?$3.45Mar 17, 07:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?$4.20Mar 17, 07:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?$19.25Mar 17, 07:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?$1.30Mar 17, 07:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?$4.94Mar 17, 07:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?$5.18Mar 17, 07:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
50/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
17% win rate over 48 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
48 closed markets, 17% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $7.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 17, 02:52 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 18, 00:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 48 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.