Incomplete-Divide
0x974bef5e92a21efb058c99825dc42efeff16d4ec
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
91
Open notional
$15.82
Total PnL
$-823.79
Realised
$26.01
Win rate
42%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 91- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
61 shares @ 9.0¢·now 14.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$8.83
$3.33
- YES
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
244 shares @ 4.1¢·now 2.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.46
$-3.54
- YES
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
353 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.53
$-2.45
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
1750 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Will the Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
1667 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
1024 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Military action against Iran ends on March 12, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 2, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
976 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-14.00
- YES
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?
909 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$5.07Jun 2, 18:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?$6.24Mar 16, 00:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$6.25Mar 16, 00:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET$5.00Mar 15, 03:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by March 31?$10.00Mar 15, 03:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by June 30?$15.00Mar 15, 03:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran strike Cyprus in March?$5.00Mar 15, 02:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYVirginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils$5.00Mar 15, 02:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET$5.00Mar 15, 02:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$5.00Mar 15, 01:59 UTC
- TRADESELLSharks vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5$49.99Mar 15, 01:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYSharks vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5$10.10Mar 15, 01:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$7.00Mar 15, 01:17 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - March 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$1.12Mar 15, 01:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$3.00Mar 15, 01:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$1.66Mar 15, 01:12 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - March 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$2.79Mar 15, 01:12 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - March 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$2.85Mar 15, 01:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$1.26Mar 15, 01:11 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - March 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$6.29Mar 15, 01:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
42% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $6.54
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 14, 02:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 2, 18:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.