Happy-Go-Lucky-Lieu
0x9758f7ab0f33b5df4d95b485345e5d1cb4b038eb
Wallet digest
Activity score
45/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-3.0K
Realised
$-811.40
Win rate
38%
158 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
11054 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-107.13
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 18?
2365 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-16.67
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down on May 18?
646 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-20.97
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23?
600 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-8.40
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 4?
464 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-118.31
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 2?
400 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 6?
320 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-2.88
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET
300 shares @ 52.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026$0.00
$-158.48
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 6?
280 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-3.92
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET$10.00Jul 16, 15:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET$9.40Jul 16, 15:04 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET$10.00Jul 16, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET$9.30Jul 16, 13:29 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET$10.00Jul 16, 12:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET$7.69Jul 16, 12:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET$1.51Jul 16, 12:34 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$10.00Jul 16, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$9.20Jul 16, 09:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$9.30Jul 16, 09:14 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$10.00Jul 16, 09:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$9.10Jul 16, 09:09 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - July 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$10.00Jul 16, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$9.20Jul 16, 08:49 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.29Jul 16, 00:45 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET$10.00Jul 15, 23:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET$4.55Jul 15, 23:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET$4.55Jul 15, 23:34 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET$10.00Jul 15, 23:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET$9.30Jul 15, 23:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
38% win rate over 158 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
158 closed markets, 38% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $7.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 15, 14:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 15:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 158 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.