0x98d1830e8552e3ff49b9ac5d36a99b47ba0a7591
0x98d1830e8552e3ff49b9ac5d36a99b47ba0a7591
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
27
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-86.08
Realised
$-3.47
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
2200 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C or below on April 22?
1900 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or below on April 23?
950 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.90
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?
950 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 31°F or below on April 22?
950 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C or below on April 21?
950 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or below on April 22?
866 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.65
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C or below on April 22?
399 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will Trump say "Iran" or "Oil" 13+ times during CNBC: Squawk Box appearance on April 21?
350 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-13.46
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on April 23?
264 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.98
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?$2.20Apr 23, 00:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Romania win Eurovision 2026?$1.25Apr 23, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or higher on April 23?$11.00Apr 22, 09:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on April 23?$2.08Apr 22, 09:14 UTC
- TRADESELLIran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?$4.00Apr 22, 09:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?$8.00Apr 22, 08:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - April 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$2.00Apr 22, 08:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - April 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$10.00Apr 22, 08:50 UTC
- TRADESELLSolana Up or Down - April 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$0.08Apr 22, 08:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - April 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$1.77Apr 22, 08:49 UTC
- TRADESELLSolana Up or Down - April 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$9.82Apr 22, 08:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - April 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$10.00Apr 22, 08:45 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET$4.92Apr 22, 08:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET$5.00Apr 22, 08:40 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$0.04Apr 22, 08:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$1.00Apr 22, 08:38 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - April 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$0.00Apr 22, 08:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Romania win Eurovision 2026?$1.36Apr 21, 18:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET$3.00Apr 21, 18:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET$1.00Apr 21, 18:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $4.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 21, 14:17 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 23, 00:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.