Itchy-Sonata
0x991f39088d235ea0fbc649382343aaa7ce104a8b
Wallet digest
Activity score
41/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.6K
Realised
$-16.54
Win rate
29%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will New York City FC vs. Columbus Crew end in a draw?
1933 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-193.06
- YES
Will New England Revolution vs. Charlotte FC end in a draw?
357 shares @ 86.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-309.36
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 23?
304 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$0.00
$-27.23
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 22?
278 shares @ 10.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026$0.00
$-30.18
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on April 13?
238 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 13?
200 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-3.80
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 23?
141 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$0.00
$-29.62
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET
129 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.81
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 23?
105 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.17
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET
95 shares @ 30.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-28.80
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$2.40Jun 19, 09:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?$0.08Jun 19, 09:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?$0.02Jun 19, 09:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?$4.26Jun 19, 09:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?$1.50Jun 19, 07:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?$1.65Jun 19, 07:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?$1.68Jun 19, 07:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$2.60Jun 14, 21:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14?$3.99Jun 14, 01:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?$99.02Jun 1, 00:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?$100.12May 31, 21:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?$50.24May 31, 21:56 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET$3.00May 30, 16:34 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET$4.00May 30, 16:34 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET$3.00May 30, 15:11 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$4.00May 30, 15:11 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET$4.50May 30, 15:11 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$5.00May 30, 15:11 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$5.00May 30, 15:11 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$0.00May 30, 15:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
29% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $8.51
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 30, 14:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 19, 09:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.