Humiliating-Ability
0x993b364feffc42346e28f242d1ad57446c70deda
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
56
Open notional
$5.0K
Total PnL
$-3.6K
Realised
$-106.89
Win rate
36%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 56- NO
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?
1598 shares @ 82.6¢·now 83.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.3K
$6.68
- NO
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2027?
445 shares @ 73.3¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$322.36
$-3.44
- NO
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
300 shares @ 96.3¢·now 97.4¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$292.20
$3.30
- NO
Iran leadership change by August 31?
301 shares @ 93.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$287.68
$7.68
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
336 shares @ 86.3¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$287.53
$-2.68
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
295 shares @ 93.3¢·now 94.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$278.77
$3.43
- NO
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?
354 shares @ 73.0¢·now 67.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$237.12
$-21.23
- NO
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?
250 shares @ 84.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$218.75
$8.75
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
300 shares @ 67.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$199.50
$-1.50
- NO
Iran leadership change by September 30?
200 shares @ 89.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$180.00
$2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$51.83Jul 29, 08:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?$29.41Jul 29, 06:39 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?$203.65Jul 28, 18:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$77.28Jul 28, 18:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?$26.53Jul 28, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?$104.94Jul 28, 13:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?$505.94Jul 28, 13:07 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$348.00Jul 28, 12:49 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?$295.43Jul 28, 12:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?$18.26Jul 28, 10:34 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$113.85Jul 28, 10:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?$5.31Jul 28, 10:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?$21.22Jul 28, 10:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?$21.22Jul 28, 10:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?$10.49Jul 28, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?$91.57Jul 28, 07:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?$96.15Jul 28, 07:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?$46.68Jul 28, 07:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$352.00Jul 28, 07:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
44/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
36% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $136.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 17:39 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 08:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.