Ideal-Penalty
0x995c28aab42c1e202e7444d71212bee64e3c8770
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$835.05
Total PnL
$-366.03
Realised
$-137.63
Win rate
0%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- NO
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
1007 shares @ 45.4¢·now 63.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$634.55
$177.44
- NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
419 shares @ 27.6¢·now 37.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$155.00
$39.50
- YES
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?
114 shares @ 21.9¢·now 24.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$27.38
$2.38
- YES
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy booster?
225 shares @ 8.9¢·now 6.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$14.72
$-5.28
- YES
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 Week of August 17 2026?
8 shares @ 59.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$3.35
$-1.65
- YES
Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?
94 shares @ 5.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$0.05
$-4.80
- NO
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?
476 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.00
$-4.91
- YES
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?
343 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$0.00
$-0.68
- YES
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals
333 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?
207 shares @ 63.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-132.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYNVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on August 17?$5.08Aug 17, 07:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 Week of August 17 2026?$5.08Aug 17, 07:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?$12.74Aug 17, 07:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?$25.78Aug 15, 08:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy booster?$20.73Aug 15, 08:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?$47.28Aug 15, 08:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?$51.00Aug 13, 09:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?$50.87Aug 13, 09:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?$0.20Aug 12, 04:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?$45.00Aug 12, 04:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?$50.00Aug 12, 04:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?$95.71Aug 12, 04:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?$38.60Aug 12, 03:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?$38.69Aug 12, 03:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?$32.00Aug 12, 03:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?$31.45Aug 12, 03:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 12, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 10, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?$26.00Aug 9, 09:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $21.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 13:32 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 07:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.