Grubby-Participation
0x99728e5a77ad13fd4a210cf8eb9c84e37739a4e8
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-636.42
Realised
$40.66
Win rate
67%
48 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET
640 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-31.00
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET
300 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- UP
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
237 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-7.99
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?
156 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 9?
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?
138 shares @ 18.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- NO
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
114 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-4.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET
114 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by June 30?$1.30Jun 26, 02:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?$0.99Jun 26, 02:43 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$0.28Jun 23, 05:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June?$0.04Jun 23, 05:37 UTC
- REDEEMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?$0.00Jun 20, 17:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?$1.18Jun 20, 14:12 UTC
- TRADESELLSolana Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET$1.13Jun 20, 03:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET$1.03Jun 20, 03:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June?$0.10Jun 20, 03:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?$0.13Jun 20, 03:20 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?$0.83Jun 20, 03:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?$1.15Jun 19, 14:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?$0.43Jun 19, 14:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?$0.74Jun 19, 14:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$1.21Jun 18, 03:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?$1.23Jun 18, 03:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 17?$1.76Jun 17, 18:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 11?$0.00Jun 17, 18:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?$0.58Jun 17, 18:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?$0.58Jun 17, 17:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
76/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 48 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
48 closed markets, 67% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $2.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 22:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 02:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 48 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.