Offbeat-Planula
0x9a192b8e856284e341a6fc7b398c7201092874e8
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$1.1K
Total PnL
$-345.74
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
1153 shares @ 86.7¢·now 93.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.1K
$72.58
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
333 shares @ 1.5¢·now 1.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.33
$0.33
- YES
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
263 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.97
$-8.03
- YES
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?
1081 shares @ 8.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2025$0.00
$-93.87
- YES
Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31?
714 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will CDU/CSU and Greens form the next German Government?
630 shares @ 7.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will AfD win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
299 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?
190 shares @ 27.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2025$0.00
$-51.76
- YES
Will the US capture Khamenei before 2027?
182 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?$1.0KJul 17, 18:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$1.1KJul 17, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?$50.20Jun 25, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$5.00Jun 25, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?$10.00Jun 25, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany win on 2026-06-25?$10.16Jun 25, 20:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$1.0KJun 25, 20:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$1.0KJun 25, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$602.14Jun 9, 19:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$112.07Jun 9, 19:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$409.38Jun 9, 19:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$302.56May 27, 10:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$357.71May 27, 10:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$6.81May 13, 19:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$302.09May 1, 06:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?$348.54May 1, 06:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?$120.00Apr 27, 11:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?$200.00Apr 24, 10:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$50.00Apr 23, 21:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$500.00Apr 18, 11:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $257.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 31, 21:47 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 17, 18:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.