Actual-Bulk-Rate
0x9a5b1c2e3fa83e68acb3447b7e8aa823bf97acf6
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
111
Open notional
$71.35
Total PnL
$417.21
Realised
$482.43
Win rate
51%
76 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 111- YES
SCOTUS upholds trans sports bans?
5 shares @ 79.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.17
$1.09
- YES
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-07-04?
5 shares @ 29.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$5.00
$3.55
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the WI-06 House seat?
6 shares @ 80.8¢·now 84.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$4.94
$0.19
- YES
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?
6 shares @ 82.7¢·now 76.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.59
$-0.40
- NO
Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame before 2027?
7 shares @ 74.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.41
$-0.57
- YES
Wimbledon 2026: Any Player to Violate Dress Code?
4 shares @ 22.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$3.85
$3.00
- NO
Will Ecuador be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
4 shares @ 23.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$3.66
$2.81
- NO
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: Both Teams to Score
3 shares @ 43.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$2.80
$1.60
- YES
Will Manel Kape fight Tatsuro Taira next?
10 shares @ 3.5¢·now 26.7¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$2.59
$2.25
- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?
8 shares @ 31.9¢·now 30.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.55
$-0.12
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the WI-06 House seat?$4.83Aug 16, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Skip Schumaker win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year?$0.06Aug 16, 16:08 UTC
- TRADESELLMajor volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?$0.42Aug 16, 04:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?$4.92Aug 15, 07:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?$1.51Aug 15, 05:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?$2.43Aug 14, 18:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?$1.57Aug 14, 18:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?$1.98Aug 14, 14:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?$2.02Aug 14, 14:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Juan Grabois win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?$0.01Aug 14, 10:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Juan Grabois win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?$0.12Aug 14, 10:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Calin Georgescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$0.04Aug 14, 05:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Calin Georgescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$0.04Aug 14, 05:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Calin Georgescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$0.02Aug 14, 05:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Calin Georgescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$0.13Aug 14, 05:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Juan Grabois win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?$0.05Aug 13, 21:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Juan Grabois win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?$0.13Aug 13, 21:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Juan Grabois win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?$0.06Aug 13, 21:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Juan Grabois win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?$0.11Aug 13, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?$3.72Aug 13, 16:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
51% win rate over 76 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
76 closed markets, 51% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 3, 12:30 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 16, 16:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 76 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.