Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame before 2027?
Probability
20¢
1h
-1.0pp
24h
-1.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
-3.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 1pp over 24h
Now 20¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 21.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5986.1h
- 13:52SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 19¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (21.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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