Spicy-Tussle
0x9aa2d705d9356557a132195c4f5321c3f294100b
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
189
Open notional
$190.67
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$-31.60
Win rate
30%
40 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 189- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
693 shares @ 43.0¢·now 27.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$190.67
$-107.76
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
3075 shares @ 7.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-228.71
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET
624 shares @ 5.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026$0.00
$-35.00
- YES
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30?
517 shares @ 11.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-59.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET
250 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET
91 shares @ 10.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
75 shares @ 37.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-28.45
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET
72 shares @ 41.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026$0.00
$-29.90
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
60 shares @ 25.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-15.15
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET$1.25Jul 21, 10:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET$2.30Jul 21, 07:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET$0.89Jul 21, 07:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET$1.56Jul 21, 07:03 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET$2.50Jul 21, 07:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET$2.50Jul 21, 06:57 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - July 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$5.00Jul 21, 06:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$2.55Jul 21, 06:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$2.30Jul 21, 06:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$2.45Jul 21, 06:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$0.96Jul 21, 06:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - July 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET$2.45Jul 21, 06:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$1.54Jul 21, 06:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - July 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET$1.10Jul 21, 06:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - July 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET$0.45Jul 21, 06:34 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET$4.41Jul 19, 07:45 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET$1.74Jul 19, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET$2.95Jul 19, 07:38 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET$0.26Jul 19, 07:38 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET$1.95Jul 19, 07:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
30% win rate over 40 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
40 closed markets, 30% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $1.76
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 07:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 10:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 40 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.