Extraneous-Croup
0x9ad64f384d51d850054266ac3ba3ac0eb435cc62
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
17
Open notional
$720.15
Total PnL
$-266.22
Realised
$61.78
Win rate
86%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- NO
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%?
300 shares @ 80.9¢·now 96.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$288.30
$45.54
- NO
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
250 shares @ 78.6¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$191.25
$-5.25
- NO
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
90 shares @ 81.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$83.30
$10.37
- YES
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
338 shares @ 13.7¢·now 12.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$42.21
$-4.06
- YES
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
280 shares @ 16.2¢·now 13.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$37.80
$-7.50
- NO
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
60 shares @ 54.8¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$34.11
$1.05
- YES
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
148 shares @ 13.2¢·now 16.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$23.61
$4.10
- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 6% and 8%?
56 shares @ 9.8¢·now 18.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$10.16
$4.60
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
100 shares @ 22.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.50
$-15.50
- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 4% and 6%?
24 shares @ 8.0¢·now 11.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.60
$0.71
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?$40.96Jul 26, 21:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?$60.00Jul 20, 14:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June?$0.01Jun 28, 14:12 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$26.00Jun 28, 05:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?$0.23Jun 28, 05:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$58.00Jun 17, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$2.00Jun 17, 15:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$46.71Jun 17, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$5.48Jun 17, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$1.81Jun 17, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$76.00Jun 17, 15:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Everett Wess be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama?$101.97Jun 17, 06:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Cowan be the Republican nominee for GA-11?$0.41Jun 16, 12:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Cowan be the Republican nominee for GA-11?$4.15Jun 16, 00:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Cowan be the Republican nominee for GA-11?$17.43Jun 16, 00:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Cowan be the Republican nominee for GA-11?$5.81Jun 15, 21:52 UTC
- REDEEMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?$150.00Jun 15, 00:25 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$88.80Jun 14, 22:55 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?$13.50Jun 14, 19:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?$5.77Jun 14, 19:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
86% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $30.52
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 2, 03:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 26, 21:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.