Runny-Cub
0x9c7047f28d799672b4502cfa6e9e401a53f1eaf8
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
62
Open notional
$127.29
Total PnL
$-2.73
Realised
$-1.28
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 62- YES
Will Ricardo Ferraço win the Governor of Espírito Santo election?
12 shares @ 41.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Oct 5, 2026$7.99
$2.99
- YES
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?
12 shares @ 41.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$5.06
$0.06
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
9 shares @ 57.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$4.96
$-0.04
- NO
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
9 shares @ 57.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$4.96
$-0.04
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
10 shares @ 50.0¢·now 48.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$4.80
$-0.20
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
14 shares @ 35.0¢·now 32.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$4.64
$-0.36
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
9 shares @ 57.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$4.41
$-0.47
- YES
Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections?
5 shares @ 55.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Dec 23, 2027$4.36
$1.36
- NO
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?
4 shares @ 76.0¢·now 86.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$3.39
$0.39
- NO
US recession by end of 2026?
3 shares @ 71.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$2.61
$0.61
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYVasteraas SK vs. Djurgardens IF: Vasteraas SK O/U 0.5$1.57Aug 10, 07:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYOlympique Lyonnais vs. AC Sparta Praha: O/U 4.5$1.58Aug 10, 07:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYOlympique Lyonnais vs. AC Sparta Praha: AC Sparta Praha O/U 1.5$1.57Aug 10, 07:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-08-11?$1.56Aug 10, 07:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYIK Sirius vs. IF Brommapojkarna: Both Teams to Score$1.55Aug 10, 07:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill CF América win on 2026-08-09?$3.75Aug 10, 07:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYAstana: Semen Pankin vs Dominik Palan$1.54Aug 10, 07:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYHamburg: Cezar Cretu vs Marvin Moeller$1.55Aug 10, 07:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill San Diego FC win on 2026-08-09?$3.33Aug 10, 06:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sevilla FC win on 2026-08-15?$1.55Aug 10, 06:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill RC Deportivo A Coruña win on 2026-08-17?$1.56Aug 10, 06:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYAstana: Fajing Sun vs Zangar Nurlanuly$1.53Aug 10, 06:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYIK Sirius vs. IF Brommapojkarna: O/U 3.5$1.55Aug 10, 06:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYAstana: Koki Matsuda vs Hayato Matsuoka$1.54Aug 10, 06:36 UTC
- REDEEMCF América vs. Portland Timbers: 1st Half O/U 0.5$0.00Aug 10, 06:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill CF América vs. Portland Timbers end in a draw?$0.00Aug 10, 06:23 UTC
- REDEEMCF América vs. Portland Timbers: Both Teams to Score$0.00Aug 10, 06:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Portland Timbers win on 2026-08-09?$2.42Aug 10, 06:23 UTC
- REDEEMCF América vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5$0.00Aug 10, 06:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYFK Fakel Voronezh vs. RFK Akhmat Groznyi: Both Teams to Score$1.55Aug 10, 06:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
25 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $1.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 10, 03:59 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 10, 07:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.