Where can I see the live data, signals, and large-trade flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/will-futuro-nazionale-get-more-votes-than-lega-in-the-next-italian-general-elections-20260609154254296 renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/will-futuro-nazionale-get-more-votes-than-lega-in-the-next-italian-general-elections-20260609154254296/markdown.

PoliticsExpires Dec 23, 2027

Creator

Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections?

Probability

48¢

+1.0pp

24h

-7.5pp

24h Vol

$90.01

Liquidity

$1.0K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Markets Detail Watchlist Alert Brief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Dec 23, 2027
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
elezioni.interno.gov.it
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type: Binary

Wide spread (14.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d

48¢

Jun 9, 2026, 23:00 UTCJun 14, 2026, 18:06 UTC

updated 18:06:45 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-14T18-06Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors

01
Price move
Down 8pp over 24h
Now 48¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.
02
Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
03
Spread cost
Wide spread — 14.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Dec 23, 2027
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
elezioni.interno.gov.it
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type: Binary

Wide spread (14.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

live monitoring

Trust transition

The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

Criteria covered

Reviewed

Awaiting review

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

Dec 23, 04:59 UTCScheduled resolution
Market resolves in 13354.9h
LOW
18:06Signal
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
LOW

Price movement

-7.5pp over the last 24h, now 48¢.

Biggest hourly move: +24.0pp at Jun 13, 00:00 UTC (to 57¢).

Show top 8 of 38 hourly moves

22:00 · +19.0pp → 55¢
21:00 · +17.5pp → 56¢
20:00 · +17.0pp → 56¢
19:00 · +16.5pp → 55¢
Jun 13, 05:00 UTC · +17.0pp → 59¢
Jun 13, 04:00 UTC · +16.5pp → 59¢
Jun 13, 02:00 UTC · +16.5pp → 59¢
Jun 13, 00:00 UTC · +24.0pp → 57¢

updated 18:06:45 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flow Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 18:06:45 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Category · Politics

Market Description

Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives a greater number of total valid votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the valid vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count. If either specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. If both specified parties run as members of a joint list together in the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50. This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that either specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified parties, or any applicable joint lists, will count for resolution of this market. If either specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party. If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If either specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections?"?

As of Sun, 14 Jun 2026 18:06:45 GMT, YES is priced at 48% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -7.5pp in the last 24 hours, +1.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 23, 2027 (2027-12-23T04:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$90.01 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $120.39. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 14.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

12 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket