Outlying-Stress
0x9cbc2b69fcccdf24f50e9dae398d781e4048bbbf
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
21
Open notional
$4.23
Total PnL
$-51.95
Realised
$-0.05
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- NO
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
3 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.30
$-0.00
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
1 shares @ 91.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.94
$0.03
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 13?
5371 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-5.37
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 23?
2046 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-4.09
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 29?
1156 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$0.00
$-2.31
- YES
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on March 22?
1141 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-2.28
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 5?
1110 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$0.00
$-3.33
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April 7?
1099 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-2.20
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on February 13?
1099 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-4.40
- YES
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on March 5?
1095 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-2.19
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$3.30Jul 3, 07:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?$3.23Jul 1, 06:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 23?$4.09Jun 23, 01:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 11?$2.11Jun 11, 03:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?$3.20Jun 2, 02:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 2?$2.14Jun 2, 01:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$2.30May 31, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 24?$2.11May 24, 02:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?$3.32May 22, 15:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?$3.31May 21, 08:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on May 16?$2.13May 16, 01:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 7?$2.15May 7, 01:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$2.30May 6, 03:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 2?$1.1KMay 2, 19:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?$3.61May 2, 07:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 2?$1.1KMay 2, 02:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 1?$1.1KMay 1, 18:13 UTC
- REDEEMTrump out as President by April 30?$2.54May 1, 13:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 1?$1.1KMay 1, 07:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 30?$1.1KApr 30, 20:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $338.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 11, 03:39 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 07:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.