Scary-Norm
0x9ce50fea015e13a8fab490d6e192fba862f1bfb7
Wallet digest
Activity score
93/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
35
Open notional
$181.62
Total PnL
$14.55
Realised
$10.75
Win rate
53%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 35- NO
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?
53 shares @ 13.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$53.00
$45.93
- NO
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?
36 shares @ 82.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$36.00
$6.19
- YES
Will Albin Kurti be the next Prime Minister of Kosovo?
32 shares @ 79.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 28, 2025$31.90
$6.56
- SYRACUSE ORANGE
Saint Joseph's Hawks vs. Syracuse Orange
29 shares @ 49.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 22, 2025$28.87
$14.72
- NO
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31?
12 shares @ 87.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$12.00
$1.46
- YES
Will António José Seguro win the first round?
5 shares @ 45.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$5.00
$2.74
- NO
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?
5 shares @ 53.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$5.00
$2.35
- NO
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 18, 2026?
3 shares @ 62.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$3.00
$1.14
- YES
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?
2 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$2.00
$0.22
- NO
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?
1 shares @ 38.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.00
$0.62
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?$3.28Jan 16, 00:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill DoorDash report 900 million or more total orders in Q4 2025?$13.80Jan 16, 00:27 UTC
- TRADESELLSaint Joseph's Hawks vs. Syracuse Orange$87.42Jan 16, 00:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill DoorDash report 900 million or more total orders in Q4 2025?$11.89Jan 16, 00:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?$1.11Jan 16, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Friend of mine" during Panthers visit?$10.40Jan 16, 00:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?$3.36Jan 16, 00:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?$5.88Jan 16, 00:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?$8.42Jan 15, 23:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?$12.64Jan 15, 23:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?$5.62Jan 15, 23:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?$11.80Jan 15, 23:52 UTC
- TRADESELLAnother critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?$4.40Jan 15, 23:42 UTC
- TRADESELLAnother critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?$6.16Jan 15, 23:41 UTC
- TRADESELLAnother critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?$2.52Jan 15, 23:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?$12.54Jan 15, 23:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?$34.16Jan 15, 23:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill António José Seguro win the first round?$2.26Jan 15, 23:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?$9.50Jan 15, 23:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$12.42Jan 15, 22:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
42/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
53% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $8.96
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 15, 19:07 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 16, 00:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.