Small-Pompom
0x9d736920e486176e7df7a76fa218f1ebd853216b
Wallet digest
Activity score
94/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$178.6K
Total PnL
$615.20
Realised
$3.7K
Win rate
60%
126 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
15687 shares @ 93.9¢·now 94.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$14.9K
$163.11
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
13000 shares @ 90.1¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.9K
$174.77
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
11319 shares @ 97.6¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$11.3K
$254.23
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
13233 shares @ 70.6¢·now 51.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.8K
$-2.5K
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
5750 shares @ 87.8¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$5.4K
$327.46
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
5800 shares @ 91.6¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.3K
$-7.19
- NO
Will a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?
4808 shares @ 98.1¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.8K
$80.55
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?
5300 shares @ 84.1¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.5K
$22.51
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?
4222 shares @ 96.0¢·now 98.9¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$4.2K
$117.99
- NO
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
3509 shares @ 90.8¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.2K
$60.33
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYXi Jinping out before 2027?$202.81Jul 30, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?$9.84Jul 30, 17:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$7.40Jul 30, 17:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 30 by July 31?$16.70Jul 30, 17:40 UTC
- TRADESELLGreater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$29.20Jul 30, 17:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?$2.15Jul 30, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Viroliubivka by December 31?$35.50Jul 30, 17:33 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Cuba military clash in 2026?$19.27Jul 30, 16:57 UTC
- TRADESELLAnother crypto hack over $100m by December 31?$18.63Jul 30, 16:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 30 by July 31?$9.20Jul 30, 16:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 30 by July 31?$24.00Jul 30, 16:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$78.50Jul 30, 16:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$78.70Jul 30, 16:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$78.90Jul 30, 16:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$25.11Jul 30, 16:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$4.75Jul 30, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?$144.00Jul 30, 16:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on July 30?$10.00Jul 30, 16:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or higher on July 30?$20.00Jul 30, 16:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$23.20Jul 30, 16:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
73/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 126 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
126 closed markets, 60% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $154.24
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 30, 14:09 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 18:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 126 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.