Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31?
Probability
86¢
1h
+1.4pp
24h
+3.9pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 4pp over 24h
Now 86¢; +1.4pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6013h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 16.1¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6012.8h
- 16:11SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6013h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.3pp
to 86¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 86¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.6pp
to 87¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.6pp
to 87¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.6pp
to 82¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 82¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 82¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.2pp
to 82¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 82¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 82¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 82¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.3pp
to 82¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.8pp
to 82¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.3pp
to 82¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.1pp
to 83¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.1pp
to 82¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.2pp
to 82¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.7pp
to 82¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This is a market on whether any crypto project or exchange suffers an exploit or hack of value at least $100 million USD equivalent between the creation of this market and 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Decentralized exchanges and lending protocol hacks will count. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Rekt News leaderboard (https://rekt.news/leaderboard/), however a credible consensus of reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (16.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).