Alarmed-Borrowing
0x9dc53b70a75ac9e2eac58c5baf99ccd79752d5f6
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
44
Open notional
$263.90
Total PnL
$-228.32
Realised
$-23.04
Win rate
69%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 44- NO
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
404 shares @ 53.0¢·now 56.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$226.24
$12.12
- NO
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?
7 shares @ 94.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$7.00
$0.38
- YES
Will Kathy Hochul win the 2026 New York Democratic Gubernatorial Primary?
7 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$7.00
$0.77
- NO
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?
7 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$7.00
$0.63
- NO
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?
5 shares @ 93.5¢·now 99.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$5.34
$0.32
- NO
Will Jake Paul walk out to Paper Planes by M.I.A.?
4 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$4.00
$2.00
- NO
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?
3 shares @ 84.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.83
$0.31
- NO
Will Steve Witkoff be next National Security Advisor?
2 shares @ 92.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.72
$0.12
- YES
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026?
6 shares @ 60.0¢·now 22.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.32
$-2.28
- NO
Will Tyron Woodley win his boxing match against Anderson Silva?
1 shares @ 71.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$1.00
$0.29
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Paul Mescal be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$4.00May 21, 09:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill 2000 Meters to Andriivka be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?$5.00May 21, 09:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill It Was Just an Accident win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?$17.00May 21, 09:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?$24.65May 21, 09:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill George Clooney be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$27.00May 21, 09:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?$33.00May 21, 09:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill PLN win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?$51.00May 21, 09:31 UTC
- REDEEMCerebras IPO before 2027?$106.00May 21, 09:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?$163.00May 21, 09:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the New England Patriots be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?$191.00May 21, 09:31 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Apr 1, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Mar 31, 00:26 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Mar 30, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Mar 29, 00:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Mar 28, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Mar 27, 00:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Mar 26, 00:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Mar 25, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Mar 24, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Mar 23, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
69% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 21, 00:19 UTC
- Last active
- May 21, 09:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.