Yellow-Ford
0x9e1c954239297f162dbd9586cafa2c86d030e801
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
24
Open notional
$691.11
Total PnL
$-2.2K
Realised
$-151.45
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- YES
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
651 shares @ 46.1¢·now 57.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$373.86
$73.86
- NO
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
214 shares @ 70.0¢·now 52.2¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$111.78
$-38.22
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?
703 shares @ 21.8¢·now 11.3¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$79.11
$-74.49
- YES
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
408 shares @ 24.5¢·now 17.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$69.59
$-30.41
- NO
Will MrBeast hit 516 million subscribers by August 31?
88 shares @ 49.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$34.66
$-8.34
- KAI
Will Kai or Speed have more in-game deaths?
133 shares @ 15.0¢·now 9.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$12.00
$-8.00
- YES
Will Kīlauea's Episode 53 begin August 13 or later?
30 shares @ 32.0¢·now 32.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$9.44
$0.00
- NO
Will MrBeast hit 515 million subscribers by August 31?
17 shares @ 1.0¢·now 3.9¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.66
$0.49
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
4799 shares @ 13.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.00
$-641.34
- NO
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?
1269 shares @ 8.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-103.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast hit 515 million subscribers by August 31?$0.17Aug 10, 19:43 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$129.82Aug 10, 18:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran target a Arab country on August 9, 2026?$20.56Aug 10, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get at least 45 million views on day 2?$1.05Aug 10, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast hit 516 million subscribers by August 31?$44.10Aug 10, 14:08 UTC
- TRADESELLIran successfully targets shipping on August 10, 2026?$25.61Aug 10, 09:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran successfully targets shipping on August 10, 2026?$35.00Aug 9, 20:53 UTC
- TRADESELLMoscow air traffic suspended by August 31?$0.07Aug 9, 14:37 UTC
- TRADESELLMoscow air traffic suspended by August 31?$253.80Aug 9, 14:36 UTC
- TRADESELLMoscow air traffic suspended by August 31?$225.66Aug 9, 14:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Houthis successfully target shipping on August 9, 2026?$2.26Aug 9, 13:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China?$0.63Aug 9, 13:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYMoscow air traffic suspended by August 31?$99.50Aug 9, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYMoscow air traffic suspended by August 31?$0.50Aug 9, 12:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYMoscow air traffic suspended by August 31?$58.00Aug 9, 12:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target a Arab country on August 9, 2026?$16.48Aug 9, 10:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Houthis successfully target shipping on August 9, 2026?$10.00Aug 9, 09:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kīlauea's Episode 53 begin August 13 or later?$2.55Aug 9, 08:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kīlauea's Episode 53 begin August 13 or later?$12.41Aug 9, 08:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai or Speed have more in-game deaths?$20.85Aug 9, 08:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $89.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 3, 10:29 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 10, 19:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.