Circular-Gentleman
0x9ec637ebedb9f5d39ba6bf3d1f0bc899ad90aa22
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$13.29
Total PnL
$-4.15
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
2 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$2.22
$0.01
- NO
Will Vance visit the Middle East by March 31?
2 shares @ 97.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.68
$0.04
- NO
Will France strike Iran by March 31?
2 shares @ 99.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.66
$0.01
- NO
Netanyahu out by 2025?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.26
$0.00
- NO
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
1 shares @ 99.1¢·now 99.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.18
$0.00
- NO
KRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30?
1 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.07
$0.00
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$1.07
$0.00
- NO
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.05
$0.00
- YES
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 14?
1 shares @ 97.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$1.05
$0.03
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
1 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.04
$0.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$0.00Jul 24, 21:26 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$1.10Jul 21, 19:59 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?$2.22Jul 11, 06:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Netflix (NFLX) finish week of July 6 above $130?$1.28Jul 10, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?$1.07Jul 10, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?$1.15Jul 10, 09:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$1.09Jul 10, 09:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netflix (NFLX) finish week of July 6 above $130?$1.28Jul 5, 08:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?$1.26Jul 1, 06:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$1.18Jun 28, 08:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?$1.25Jun 28, 08:53 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$1.16Jun 20, 00:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the announcers say "What A Save" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup Match?$1.15Jun 13, 12:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$1.12Jun 13, 09:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the announcers say "What A Save" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup Match?$1.15Jun 13, 09:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$2.21May 30, 01:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?$1.07May 9, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYCrude Oil all time high by April 30?$1.05Apr 30, 02:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYKRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30?$1.07Apr 29, 08:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$1.04Apr 29, 00:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $4.06
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 17, 02:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 21:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.