Scratchy-Parrot
0x9ecb5fad99b60cc6f024d8c353650a3458aed40d
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
26
Open notional
$16.11
Total PnL
$-10.0K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- NO
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch?
6 shares @ 94.2¢·now 88.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$5.61
$-0.39
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
5 shares @ 95.3¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.63
$0.13
- NO
Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch?
3 shares @ 98.0¢·now 91.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.81
$-0.19
- NO
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
3 shares @ 93.0¢·now 70.7¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$2.28
$-0.72
- YES
Discord IPO before 2027?
2 shares @ 90.2¢·now 35.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.78
$-1.22
- YES
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 2025?
37003 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-37.00
- YES
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open?
5285 shares @ 50.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.7K
- YES
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?
3700 shares @ 59.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.2K
- NO
Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?
2120 shares @ 65.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.4K
- YES
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
2000 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-720.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Deepak Chopra be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?$3.49Jul 25, 20:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$4.06Jul 25, 20:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?$4.15Jun 7, 00:56 UTC
- REDEEMIran leadership change by April 30?$472.10Jun 7, 00:56 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$775.00Jun 7, 00:56 UTC
- REWARD$0.12Mar 27, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$14.86Mar 26, 14:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$340.00Mar 26, 14:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$0.07Mar 26, 14:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$42.50Mar 26, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$10.63Mar 26, 14:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$118.94Mar 26, 14:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Pheu Thai Party (PT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?$2.11Mar 21, 20:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?$2.17Mar 21, 20:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$2.61Mar 21, 20:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?$2.69Mar 21, 20:20 UTC
- REDEEMNew "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? $3.09Mar 21, 20:20 UTC
- REDEEMMoonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch?$3.27Mar 21, 20:20 UTC
- REDEEMInsurrection Act invoked by January 31?$3.74Mar 21, 20:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m and 480m by January 31?$4.01Mar 21, 20:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $57.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 17, 22:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 20:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.